What number of medals will Canada win in Tokyo?

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That is an excerpt from The Buzzer, which is CBC Sports activities’ each day e-mail e-newsletter. Keep in control on what’s taking place on the Tokyo Olympics by subscribing right here.

Fast observe earlier than we get began: from now by way of the closing ceremony on Aug. 8, the Buzzer will probably be devoted completely to the Tokyo Olympics. Seven days every week, you may get information, perception and evaluation on the largest tales from the Video games, in addition to tips about who and what to look at to assist information your TV and live-stream viewing. For all of your non-Olympic sports activities information, together with the newest from a busy NHL low season, go to CBCSports.ca.

OK, on to the Olympic stuff:

What number of medals will Canada win? It is extra-hard to say this time

Even in one of the best of occasions, predicting Olympic medals is an inexact science. And the Tokyo Video games aren’t going down in one of the best of occasions. A once-in-a-century world pandemic brought on the cancellation of numerous world championships, World Cups and different main occasions over the previous 12 months and a half or so, rendering many Olympic athletes unable to compete — and even practice correctly — for a protracted stretch of time. Worldwide competitors regained some normalcy over the previous few months, however issues remained spotty amid all of the journey restrictions, security issues and different complications concerned with attempting to play sports activities throughout a worldwide well being disaster.

All this has been robust on the athletes — clearly. And it is also made issues tougher for forecasters like Gracenote, an information firm that initiatives the medal winners for each occasion within the Olympics primarily based on outcomes from “key world and continental competitions” for the reason that final Summer time Video games. With these competitions in brief provide, Gracenote calls the Tokyo Olympics even “extra unpredictable than regular.”

The most important black field is China, which has largely stayed away from worldwide competitors for the reason that begin of the pandemic. Gracenote says that almost 80 per cent of the Chinese language athletes its mannequin ranks within the prime eight of their occasions haven’t produced any ends in the final 12 months and a half. Nonetheless, China is projected to complete second within the medal standings with 33 gold (seven behind the US) and third within the whole rely with 66 (the U.S. is projected for 96, and the Russian group is second at 68). However the system might be underrating China’s podium possibilities. “No different prime nation has a lot lacking info,” says Simon Gleave, the Head of Analytics for Gracenote Sports activities.

Discover stay streams, must-watch video highlights, breaking information and extra in a single good Olympic Video games bundle. Following Staff Canada has by no means been simpler or extra thrilling.

Extra from Tokyo 2020

Regardless of all these caveats, it is nonetheless enjoyable to dive into the projections for an concept of what to anticipate and who to look at over the following 17 days in Tokyo. Listed here are essentially the most fascinating issues the Gracenote mannequin predicts for Canada, together with some locations the place I believe it could be just a little off:

Canada’s projected medal rely seems very acquainted. The mannequin likes Canada to win 21 medals. That is one decrease than its whole from the 2016 Video games in Rio, however one larger than its common over the previous three Summer time Video games. In the meantime, Canadians are projected to win 4 gold medals — the identical quantity they took house from Rio. Gracenote’s mannequin initiatives Damian Warner (decathlon), Jessica Klimkait (judo, girls’s 57kg division), Meaghan Benfeito and Caeli McKay (diving, girls’s 10m synchronized occasion), and Laurence Vincent Lapointe and Katie Vincent (canoe, girls doubles occasion) will attain the highest of the rostrum. The betting markets appear to be knowledgeable by Gracenote’s projections, however, for what’s it is value, they’re kind of consistent with the mannequin. The present consensus over/underneath traces for Canada are 4.5 gold medals and 21.5 whole.

Greater than 80 per cent of Canada’s medals will probably be received by girls, based on the mannequin. That is really down from the eye-popping 95 per cent share it predicted in April, however nonetheless outstanding. But not shocking. Ladies accounted for slightly below three quarters of Canada’s medals in Rio. Swimming sensation Penny Oleksiak led the way in which there with 4 — two particular person, two relay. The Gracenote mannequin has her lacking the rostrum in Tokyo, the place it likes Vincent Lapointe, Benfeito and fellow diver Jennifer Abel to tie for the Canadian lead with a pair of medals every — one solo, one with a associate. Different notable projections for Canadian feminine athletes embrace: Rosie MacLennan falls simply in need of her third consecutive girls’s trampoline gold medal, taking silver; Ellie Black turns into the primary Canadian girl to win a medal in conventional gymnastics by ending second within the all-around occasion, and 2016 wrestling gold medallist Erica Wiebe additionally lands silver.

A number of locations the place the Canadian projections could be off: On the pessimistic facet, Gracenote’s concern that its mannequin is underestimating Chinese language athletes seems to manifest with the Benfeito/McKay gold-medal choose. China just about owns diving: it received seven of the eight gold medals in Rio, with the boys’s 3m springboard the one miss. Positive sufficient, the betting markets have China’s 10m synchro duo as an enormous favorite. On the optimistic facet, Vincent Lapointe was essentially the most dominant girls’s canoe athlete on this planet for the higher a part of the previous decade, profitable half a dozen world titles within the singles 200m occasion, which was simply added to the Olympics. However a optimistic doping take a look at in 2019 (later overturned) took her out of competitors for some time and brought on her to overlook the newest world championships, which might be skewing her projection downward. It is also curious that the mannequin picks Canada to win solely two swimming medals after Canadians racked up eight at the newest world championships. It has two-time and reigning world 100m backstroke champ Kylie Masse settling for silver in her marquee occasion, and reigning 100m butterfly world champ Maggie Mac Neil lacking the rostrum altogether. On the boys’s facet, sprinter Andre De Grasse all the time appears to exceed expectations. He received three medals in Rio (100, 200 and 4×100) and has by no means missed the rostrum in a person occasion he is entered on the Olympics or world championships. However the mannequin has him leaving Tokyo with only a bronze within the 200.

In 2016 the trampolinist grew to become the one Canadian to win back-to-back Olympic gold medals in a person summer season sport. MacLennan is headed to Tokyo to compete in her fourth Olympic Video games. 0:53

It is the calm earlier than the storm

With the stage being set for the opening ceremony, not quite a bit in the way in which of competitors is going on tomorrow in Tokyo (that is tonight and tomorrow morning in Canadian time zones). Listed here are two issues it is best to learn about:

The opening ceremony is tomorrow morning. The present begins Friday at 7 a.m. ET, and stay protection begins at 6:30 a.m. ET on the CBC TV community, CBC Gem, the CBC Olympics app and CBC Sports activities’ Tokyo 2020 web site. Olympic opening ceremonies have a (deserved) status as over-produced, bloated spectacles. However count on a smaller, extra muted show as Japan and the remainder of the world proceed to grapple with the pandemic. Tokyo’s Olympic Stadium will probably be devoid of followers — if you happen to do not rely the appreciable variety of assorted dignitaries who’re invited. Solely 30-40 of Canada’s 371 athletes are anticipated to participate — together with flag-bearers Miranda Ayim (girls’s basketball) and Nathan Hirayama (males’s rugby sevens). The remainder are both competing elsewhere in Japan, on the verge of competing or have not arrived but (athletes had been requested to indicate up no sooner than 5 days earlier than their occasions). The present has already had its share of controversy. Its director was fired over a Holocaust joke he included in a comedy routine in 1998, a composer resigned over feedback he made again within the ’90s about bullying, and the artistic director stepped down after saying a well-known heavyset Japanese comedienne might carry out as an “Olympig.” Learn extra about what to anticipate within the ceremony and learn how to watch it right here.

Rowing competitors begins tonight. It is simply heats on the primary day (medal races do not begin till Monday night time in Canadian time zones), however that is our first have a look at Canada’s largest rowing group since 1996. Ten Canadian boats (identical as in Atlanta) are entered in varied occasions. They’re unlikely to match the six medals the ’96 rowers introduced house, however Canada has a number of podium contenders. The most effective is the ladies’s pair crew of Caileigh Filmer and Hillary Janssens. They received gold on the 2018 world championships and bronze in ’19 — the final time the worlds had been held. Filmer and Janssens are within the water for his or her warmth on Friday night time. Tonight, the Canadians in motion are Carling Zeeman (girls’s single sculls), Trevor Jones (males’s single sculls), and Gabrielle Smith and Jessica Sevick (girls’s double sculls). Heats start at 7:30 p.m. ET and you’ll stream them stay on CBC Gem, the CBC Olympics app and CBC Sports activities’ Tokyo 2020 web site. Learn extra concerning the Canadian rowing group’s efforts to rebuild from its humbling one-medal displaying in Rio right here.

One thing else to take a look at

The 4% Rising e-newsletter. A examine achieved a number of years again discovered that solely 4 per cent of conventional media protection was dedicated to girls’s sports activities. Therefore the title of this text targeted on rising the viewers by telling you what, when and the place to look at. Beginning Friday, they’re specializing in the ladies’s occasions it is best to catch within the Tokyo Olympics. You possibly can learn the newest version and subscribe right here.

You are in control. Speak to you tomorrow.

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Written by bourbiza

Bourbiza Mohamed. Writer and Political Discourse Analysis.


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